AGP Executive Report

Defense & Security: Russia’s Africa Corps has reportedly deployed upgraded Shahed-type Garpiya-A1 long-range drones in Mali for the first confirmed use outside Ukraine, with wreckage found near Sévaré after clashes. AI & Digital Economy: A new 2026 map shows the UAE leading AI usage by working-age adults (70%), with Europe also dominating top adoption markets. Regional Military Training: Türkiye’s EFES 2026 exercise is drawing 50 nations, with autonomous drone swarms and layered air defense in focus—and Libya and Syria participating for the first time in years. Libya Infrastructure & Industry: Bosnia’s Energoinvest signed a €2.71m contract with LISCO to build power supply facilities in Misrata, while Benghazi inaugurated the first phase of the Jalyana project with five bridges. Trade & Health Oversight: Libya’s Economy Ministry accredited seven international inspection firms to check medicines and medical equipment at export ports. Justice: The ICC held a landmark hearing in Libya’s atrocity case involving accused militia commander El Hishri.

ICC Accountability: A former Libyan militia commander accused of murder, rape, enslavement and torture is set to appear at the International Criminal Court in a hearing campaigners call a “huge milestone” after years of investigation. Energy Deal: Energoinvest has secured a multi-million euro Libya power deal, signaling a push to return and build new generation capacity. Oil Market Push: Libya’s National Oil Corporation chief tells British officials Libya is “open for business” as production hits a 13-year high and talks focus on investment and a unified sector. Trade Oversight: Libya’s Economy Ministry accredits seven international inspection firms to check medicines and medical equipment at ports outside Libya—aiming to tighten import controls. Border Pressure: EU Schengen reporting and Frontex data point to fewer irregular crossings, but smuggling risks remain persistent. Health & Education: A Tripoli stroke conference kicks off, while Gharyan launches a national science curriculum competition for final-year students. Culture: Benghazi honors young artist Ziad Al-Sahati at a major youth talent event.

Import Controls: Libya’s Economy Ministry authorized the Health Ministry to use seven accredited international inspection firms (SGS, Bureau Veritas, Intertek, TÜV Rheinland, Cotecna, Dekra, Eurofins) to externally inspect medicines and medical equipment at export ports outside Libya, aiming to tighten conformity with approved specs. Aid to Gaza: A “Sumud 2/Resilience 2” humanitarian convoy with 350+ activists and 50 containers left Zawiya toward Egypt’s Rafah crossing, joining wider efforts that also include a Turkey-launched flotilla. Security & Regional Spillover: The week’s biggest external shock is the reported US-Nigeria strike killing ISIS second-in-command Abu-Bilal al-Mainuki in Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin, underscoring how West Africa’s militant networks keep reshaping the region. Sahel Warning: Commentary and mapping coverage argues AES has failed across the Sahel, with authority collapsing and jihadist pressure expanding.

Health Push in Tripoli: Libya’s first Libyan Stroke Conference opened in Tripoli, bringing doctors and officials together to upgrade stroke diagnosis, treatment, and cooperation across health institutions. Security & Migration: The UK’s National Crime Agency says people-smuggling arrests jumped 55% year-on-year, underscoring how migration routes remain under pressure. AI for Conflict Prevention: UNRCCA’s Preventive Diplomacy Academy ran a session on AI and digital tools for early warning and conflict prevention, including platforms for anonymous dialogue and geospatial monitoring. Education & Youth: Gharyan kicked off a Libya-wide final-year science stream curriculum competition, with qualifiers feeding into today’s results. Gaza Aid Movement: A new international land convoy (“Sumud 2/Resilience 2”) departed Zawiya toward Egypt’s Rafah crossing, aiming to deliver medical and housing support after earlier access hurdles. Oil & Business: Libya’s NOC chief met Shell in London, with Shell finalizing studies on Libyan fields for a report due by end of May.

Education & Youth: Gharyan kicked off a Libya-wide curriculum competition for final-year science students under the “Tomorrow’s Scientists… Start Today” banner, with 55 students competing and final results due today, plus a cultural program at Al-Quds High School. Humanitarian Access: A new “Sumud 2/Resilience 2” land convoy left Zawiya aiming to reach Gaza via Egypt’s Rafah crossing, with 350+ activists from 30 countries and 50 containers of aid and mobile housing. Security & Counterterrorism: The U.S. and Nigeria confirmed the killing of ISIS second-in-command Abu-Bilal al-Minuki in a joint operation in Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin. Energy & Investment: Libya’s NOC chairman told British officials Libya is “open for business” as production rises and cooperation with Shell moves toward a final study submission by end of May. Food & Water Tech: FAO trained North African officials in AI and geospatial tools to manage water and land ecosystems, including Libya’s MERWAT platform.

Counterterrorism: US and Nigerian forces say they killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, IS’s global second-in-command, in a precision strike in Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin, with Tinubu confirming the raid and Trump calling it a major regional breakthrough. Libya Energy Push: Libya’s National Oil Corporation is courting new partners as production rises; NOC chairman Masoud Suleiman told British officials Libya is “open for business,” while Shell says it’s finalising studies on multiple Libyan fields for submission by end of May under a 2025 MoU. Healthcare Upgrade: Libya’s Health Ministry inaugurated 13 “Golden Clinic” complexes to expand faster, more accessible care. Governance & Trade Friction: The Libyan-Egyptian Joint Economic Chamber warns of illegal Egyptian private inspection fees, saying customs release rules in Benghazi don’t require them. Security Tech Watch: OSINT reports Libya’s LNA may have received newer Russian T-72B3M (2025) tanks with added anti-drone protection.

Counterterror Strike: The U.S. and Nigeria say they killed Abu Bakr al-Mainuki, an Islamic State leader described as the group’s global second-in-command, in a precision raid in Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin, with Nigeria confirming the death and “several lieutenants.” Libya–Energy Watch: Libya’s NOC says Shell is finalizing a technical study on multiple Libyan oil and gas fields and will submit its report by end of May under a 2025 MoU—aimed at boosting production plans. Libya–Trade Integrity: A Libyan-Egyptian chamber warns that Egyptian private inspection firms are charging dollar fees for goods entering Libya, calling it illegal and urging customs authorities to stop the practice. Humanitarian Movement: A new land convoy (“Resilience 2/Soumoud 2”) has set off from Libya toward Egypt’s Rafah crossing to deliver aid to Gaza after earlier access problems. Security Signals: OSINT reporting says Libya’s LNA may have received newer Russian T-72B3M (2025 model) tanks, highlighting continued arms modernization. Regional Tech/Conflict: Greece says a sea drone found near Lefkada likely veered off course due to a technical malfunction, keeping Mediterranean tensions in focus.

Humanitarian Security: Drones are now the biggest driver of civilian deaths in Sudan’s war, with UN officials saying armed drones caused over 80% of conflict-related deaths (at least 880 civilians killed from January to April) as both the army and RSF use foreign-supplied tech to strike hospitals, schools, markets, and even Khartoum airport. Libya Military Watch: OSINT monitoring reports Libya’s Libyan National Army has spotted Russia’s newest T-72B3M tanks (2025 model), including at least three units, with upgrades aimed at surviving drone attacks—another sign of continued arms influence despite Russia’s Ukraine losses. Mediterranean Tensions: Greece says a suspected Ukrainian sea drone found near Lefkada likely veered off course due to a technical malfunction, while investigators still weigh whether it could have been launched from Libya. Aid Movement: A “Soumoud 2” land convoy is preparing to leave Libya for Egypt’s Rafah crossing to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. Libya–China Economy: Tripoli’s Dbeibah is urging Chinese firms to return and restart stalled projects in energy, housing, and infrastructure.

Energy Access Crisis: Renaissance Africa Energy CEO Tony Attah says lack of cleaner energy is killing 100,000 Nigerians every year, and Africa overall tops 400,000 deaths—fueling renewed calls to treat gas as “life.” Mediterranean Security: Greek investigators say a suspected Ukrainian explosive sea drone found near Lefkada likely veered off course due to technical failure, though they’re still assessing mission details and how far it traveled. Libya Military Watch: OSINT monitoring reports Russia’s newest T-72B3M tanks spotted in Libya with Khalifa Haftar’s forces, highlighting the growing role of anti-drone survivability upgrades. Libya–China Reconstruction Push: Tripoli’s Dbeibah invites Chinese firms back to restart stalled projects, with emphasis on energy, housing, infrastructure, and technology transfer. Justice in Focus: The ICC is set for a May 19–21 hearing in the El Hishri Libya atrocity case to decide whether the trial proceeds.

Libya–China Push: Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah says Libya is ready for major Chinese firms to return and restart stalled projects, with new focus on energy, housing, and infrastructure—plus a promise of technology transfer and industrial localization. Health Security: Libya hosts a Sahrawi Republic delegation at an Africa CDC workshop aimed at strengthening national disease-control centers and boosting funding, research, and multi-sector health responses. Energy Calendar: Gastech 2026 is set for Bangkok (14–17 Sept) with 50,000+ professionals and a heavy agenda on LNG, electrification, AI infrastructure, and low-carbon systems. Climate Backdrop: COP30 ended without a clear fossil-fuel phase-out deal, adding pressure to the already worsening heat-and-water stress story. Sports Tech Spotlight: Saudi Arabia topped the North African Informatics Olympiad medal table, signaling growing regional talent pipelines. Libya Justice Watch: The ICC begins a May 19–21 hearing in the El Hishri Libya atrocity case.

ICC Libya Case: The International Criminal Court will hold a key May 19–21 hearing in the El Hishri atrocity case, with judges deciding whether the case moves to trial—an overdue step for victims after the 2011 Libya referral. Libya–China Partnership: Tripoli’s Abdulhamid Dabaiba used a panel on Libyan-Chinese cooperation to push for Chinese firms to return, expand Belt and Road links, and accelerate technology transfer and local industry. Energy Training Push: Libya’s National Oil Corporation signed a training cooperation deal with a French development agency for renewable-energy skills at the Sebha Institute of Petroleum Technology. Oil Sector Legal Win: National Oil Corporation ended a decade-long dispute to take full ownership of the Ras Lanuf refinery, a potential boost for control and investment. Health & Security: Libya reported suspected lumpy skin disease in imported cattle in southern markets, triggering quarantine steps while lab tests are pending. Regional Context: The week also kept attention on wider geopolitics—from West Asia sanctions and maritime risks to the ICC’s broader role in ending impunity.

Libya Justice Watch: The ICC will hold a key hearing on May 19–21 in the El Hishri case, with judges reviewing charges tied to alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity—an overdue step for victims after Libya’s 2011 referral. Energy & Skills: NOC and the Sebha Petroleum Institute signed a training cooperation deal with France’s development agency, focusing on advanced renewable-energy programs for students and trainers. Libya–China Reset: Dabaiba backed a “three-pillar” Libyan-Chinese partnership—bringing back Chinese firms to restart stalled projects, deepening Belt and Road ties, and pushing technology transfer plus industrial localization. Food Security & Health Risk: Southern Libya’s agricultural police reported suspected lumpy skin disease in imported cattle, triggering quarantine and lab testing while tightening health certificate issuance. Regional Tech/Policy: EU–Libya higher education talks covered Erasmus reactivation, research cooperation, and digital transformation.

Libya Justice Watch: The ICC is set for a landmark “confirmation of charges” hearing in Libya’s atrocity case against Khaled Mohamed Ali El Hishri (May 19–21), a long-awaited step after years of impunity. Humanitarian Movement: The “Steadfastness 2” aid convoy has entered Libya and is now staging west of Tripoli, aiming to reach Gaza via Rafah with doctors, engineers, and activists calling for security and monitoring. Higher Education Links: Libya’s Higher Education minister met the EU ambassador to push Erasmus reactivation, student exchanges, and research cooperation. Oil Sector Shift: Libya’s National Oil Corporation has ended a decade-long dispute to take full ownership of the Ras Lanuf refinery and petrochemical complex from UAE-based Trasta. Public Health Alert: Southern Libya’s agricultural police report suspected lumpy skin disease in imported cattle, with isolation and quarantine underway pending lab tests.

Libya Justice: The ICC is set for a May 19–21 “confirmation of charges” hearing in the Khaled Mohamed Ali El Hishri case, a long-awaited step for Libya victims after years of impunity. Libya Energy: Libya’s National Oil Corporation has ended a decade-long dispute by taking full ownership of the Ras Lanuf refinery and petrochemical complex, a major shift toward full Libyan control. Health on the Ground: In southern Libya, veterinary teams in Umm al-Aranib report suspected lumpy skin disease in imported cattle, with animals isolated and quarantined while lab tests are pending. Regional Security: A Ukrainian-made explosive sea drone found off Greece’s Lefkada is being investigated, raising fears the Ukraine war could spill into the Mediterranean. Gulf Geopolitics: Reports of UAE covert strikes on Iran and the UAE’s recent OPEC exit keep reshaping Gulf security and energy calculations. AI & Business: Egypt’s “The Shift by e&” prelude ahead of the Narrative Summit spotlights AI governance and capital allocation, with Libya and Sudan represented in the speaker lineup.

Libya Energy Reset: Libya’s National Oil Corporation has ended a decade-long legal fight with UAE partner Trasta, taking 100% control of the Ras Lanuf refinery and petrochemical complex—Libya’s biggest plant at about 220,000 bpd—marking a major shift toward fully Libyan management. Libya Security Training: In Sirte, rival Libyan forces trained together with US and international partners during Flintlock 2026, a rare signal of unity-building after years of civil-war splits. Libya Tech & Science: Benghazi hosted MEENA 2026 sessions on faster, automated latent TB detection (VIDAS 3), while Libya also secured UNESCO tentative-list status for the Old Mosque in Oujla and Qasr Al-Haj in the Nafusa Mountains. Regional Watch: Greece is investigating a Ukrainian explosive sea drone found near Lefkada, raising fears of wider Mediterranean hybrid warfare. Africa-Global Tech Angle: A new push highlights how African genetic diversity is still missing from global research—an ongoing gap with real health impacts.

Libya’s Oil Shock: Zawiya’s 120,000 bpd refinery shut down and an emergency was declared after clashes near the plant, with tankers evacuated as shelling hit the complex—NOC says no major damage yet, but fuel supply to Tripoli wasn’t affected. Energy Control Shift: Ras Lanuf’s return to full NOC control is being framed as a turning point for Libya’s downstream ambitions and industrial value, not just routine paperwork. Security Tech Spillover: A Ukrainian sea drone probe found off Greece—linked to explosive payloads and “shadow fleet” targeting—highlights how Mediterranean risk is widening beyond the Black Sea. Diplomacy & Science: Libya’s Higher Education ministry met to support the Union of Arab Academics and Scientists in Libya, while Benghazi hosted a session on faster latent TB detection using VIDAS 3. Digital Push: Libya launched its bid for the ITU Council seat (2027–2030), pitching itself as a regional telecoms and payments hub. Culture Watch: Two historic sites—Oujla’s “Old Mosque” and Nafusa’s “Qasr Al-Haj”—were added to UNESCO’s tentative list.